What Today’s Market Is (and isn’t)

Since March 2020, the housing market has stopped making sense—at least compared to the two decades before it. We got hit with the perfect storm. A global pandemic, sudden work-from-home freedom, and the realization that “home” actually needed to work for your life (because... let’s face it, you weren’t leaving it for a while).

Then came the unicorn of interest rates—once-in-a-generation lows that slashed mortgage payments in half. And since two-thirds of all home purchases are financed, that alone poured gasoline on buyer demand.

But wait, there’s more.

Just as buyers flooded the market, sellers hit pause. Listings dried up. Inventory vanished. And what would’ve hurt in a normal market turned into a full-blown crisis—right as demand hit a fever pitch.

What we saw was a historic rise in home values and record-breaking sale prices in nearly every segment of the market.

And just when we were all finally coming to terms with that version of the market, the Fed came in with a panicked, heavy hand. Interest rates doubled in under six months, flipping the whole thing on its head (again). The result? We got two straight years—2023 and 2024—of the lowest home sales since Bill Clinton was in office. No, seriously.

Which brings us to today: the new normal. A weird, wobbly market where buyers and sellers are still trying to figure out what’s real and what’s noise.

Here are some empirical facts about the market as of Spring 2025:

• In January, the typical home sold for 1.8% below asking—the biggest discount in almost two years.
  Translation: buyers are no longer paying asking price (in fact, most aren't).

• Homes are sitting longer, averaging 56 days on market—the slowest pace in nearly five years.
  Translation: gone are the days of listing on a Thursday and collecting 20 offers by Monday.

• Inventory is up: April saw a 30.6% year-over-year increase in active listings.
  Translation: yay! We’ve been begging for more homes to hit the market since March 2020.

• Price cuts are climbing: 18% of homes reduced price in April—the highest April level since at least 2016.

So yeah… you seeing what I’m seeing?

The rocket ship that was this market? It’s still in orbit, but it’s definitely not climbing anymore. And while we’re not crashing back to Earth, we’re not fueling for another liftoff either.

What does this mean for you? Your home (or the one you want) has probably never been more valuable—but the days of prices rising just because are on pause. For things to go higher, we’d need a big rate cut. For prices to drop? We'd need a wave of new listings to flood the market. Until then, welcome to what—by my account—finally feels like a balanced market.

So what’s my take?

If you’re a seller, stop aspirationally pricing your home. It’s not that season anymore. And don’t be depressed when an offer comes in 2% below asking. It’s fine. You’re like someone who bought a stock at $100, missed the $1,000 peak, but can still sell for $900. You haven’t lost—you’re still winning, big time.

Buyers—complaining about 7% rates is a half-baked take. Today’s rates are the reason you're not competing with 18 offers and waving every contingency just to be considered. Go find that dream home—or the right fit—and yes, pay that wild price with a not-so-great rate. Why? Because it’s unlikely to be cheaper tomorrow. And when rates do drop? That’s your cue to refi and lock in the win.

Your purchase is a two-part strategy: buy the asset now, fix the financing later.

As always, we at the G&T Group are here to guide you and talk specifics about your sale or search.