Inside the Blender. What the 2025 Real Estate Market Really Looks Like
One of our biggest peeves is when talking heads confidently declare, “The market is [insert bold claim here].” As if real estate is one singular, tidy entity. It’s like saying, “The stock market is up”—okay, but which part? Tech? Energy? Crypto? Because if your portfolio’s down 20% year-over-year, that blanket statement starts to feel less like insight... and more like insult. That’s when you remember the “market” is really just a blender full of everything—from excellent to ugly—all mixed together.
In residential real estate, “the market” is hyper-local. So making sweeping declarations about real estate as a whole is about as useful as saying, “The weather is bad.” Depends where you are—Portland or Palm Springs?
And it doesn’t stop there. Even within a single zip code or town, you’re dealing with micro-markets: different price points (luxury vs. entry-level), property types (condos, single-family, multifamily), and desirability factors like proximity to schools, parks, transit, or jobs. So… no, we can’t reduce all that nuance to a punchy headline—though plenty try.
That’s why we can’t give you a full picture of your real estate holdings without digging into the specifics. But as your real estate resource, we can zoom out, take a look inside the blender, and offer some clarity on what the macro data is telling us about where we stand one-third into 2025—and where things might be headed next.
Let’s take a look at what the data is saying:
Seller concessions are rising: 44.4% of Q1 home sales included concessions—up 5% from last year and just shy of the 45.1% record set in early 2023 (back when mortgage rate buy-downs were everywhere).
Inventory is up: U.S. housing inventory hit a five-year high this spring. In April alone, active listings jumped 30.6% year-over-year—the highest April inventory since 2020.
More price cuts: In March, 33.9% of active listings had a price reduction—the highest March level in over a decade, and up 2% from March 2024.
Homes are sitting longer: The median days on market in March was 47—the longest for that month since 2019.
More deals below asking + concessions: 21.5% of Q1 sales closed below asking and included a seller concession—up roughly 3% from last year.
The trifecta is growing: 9.9% of homes sold this year had all three: a concession, a price cut, and a final sale price below list—2% higher than last year.
Is it the tariff talk? Stock market woes? Stubborn mortgage rates? Maybe none of the above.
Our take? Markets are like seasons—they’re meant to change. That’s not a red flag; it’s just the natural cycle doing its thing. What we’re seeing in early 2025 feels like the culmination of years of affordability pressure, economic uncertainty, and buyer hesitation finally tipping the supply-demand scale.
The million-dollar question: are we entering a new season... or is this just a slow start driven by temporary headwinds?
Here’s what we believe: real estate remains one of the safest, most consistent vehicles for building wealth—if you're playing the long game. Over 5 to 10 years, it performs right alongside the best of them. In the short term? Sure, there are winners and losers. But in the long run, it’s as certain as emails from your HOA.
As always, I am happy to give you an exact picture of what your real estate holdings and ambitions look like in today’s market.